Titel: Effects of Large Scale Wind Capacities in Sweden, Elforsk rapport 09:102
Författare/Author: Econ Pöyry AS
Utgivare/Publisher: Elforsk
Årtal/Year: 2008
Ämnesord/Subject: elnät
Sökord/Keywords: BID model, Sweden, Norway,
Rapport via Elforsk
Sammanfattning/Abstract: This report describes the effects large scale wind investments have on the Swedish and Nordic power market. The results presented in this report were
obtained using Econ Pöyry’s BID model, a power market simulation tool with hourly time resolution, startup and part-load efficiency modelling, and advanced hydro modelling. We find that large scale wind power investments in Sweden and Norway would considerably reduce power prices in the Nordic area. At the same time, price volatility can be expected to rise slightly, in particular in hours of very high load (e.g. very cold winter months). In addition, hours of zero or very low prices may also become a reality in Sweden (as it can already be seen in Denmark today).
Background and Problem statement
In Sweden, the objective is to have an increase of 10 TWh of wind generation in the coming years. For Norway, equally ambitious targets are discussed. There are a number of intrinsic problems associated with wind generation, for example its stochasticity, volatility, and its unforeseeable nature. This creates challenges for the power market, in particular if wind is to play an important role in the power mix. It is therefore important to understand how this may affect the Swedish and Nordic power system. The unforeseeable nature of
wind, creates challenges for the power market, in particular if wind plays an important role in the power mix.
The effect of wind can be divided into two parts, its effect on the capacity of a system, and the effect on the energy balance. Its first effect has an impact on the price volatility of the system, the latter on the average price level. In order to assess and quantify these effects, Econ Pöyry used its BID model, a power market simulation model, to evaluate the effect of large scale wind investments in Norway and Sweden.
Conclusion and recommendation
We find that large scale wind investments will considerably reduce the average prices in the Nordic power system. Its effect on price volatility will depend largely on the amount of other peak capacities (gas turbines, hydro capacities) in the system. We find that with other peak capacities in place, that can be used to balance off the system if the wind is not blowing, price volatility is limited. Without such backup capacities, an increased volatility can be expected, in particular in hours of very high demand load (e.g. very cold
winter months). Furthermore, the system is likely to also create some hours with zero or very low prices, with large scale wind capacities in the system, an effect which is already seen in Denmark today, as a result of large scale wind generation.
We would, however, like to stress the point that the results of the model runs depend largely on the assumptions on other capacities in the system. Those assumptions were done outside the model (and were agreed upon when drafting the scenarios). In all scenarios with additional wind, none of the existing generation is replaced by wind. This can be questioned. For example, if one assumed that the wind would replace existing capacity and “push out” other kind of base load generation, the results may look very different.